The current AGOA transition exposes a strategic vulnerability that African exporters and policymakers cannot ignore; trade preferences are policy instruments that can be extended, modified, suspended, or replaced.

The February 2026 legislation restored AGOA and extended it through the end of 2026, but the U.S. administration has already begun discussing modernization. This uncertainty should not necessarily be interpreted as a reason to disengage from AGOA, but as a reason to use AGOA more strategically.

For African manufacturers, the objective should be to use preferential access to develop capabilities that remain valuable regardless of the future structure of U.S. trade preferences. A competitive African apparel manufacturer should be capable of serving the United States while also developing opportunities within African markets, Europe, and other international destinations.

This is where AfCFTA becomes strategically important again. Africa should not have to choose between regional integration and global export markets. The long-term objective should be to use regional integration to build the industrial scale necessary to compete globally. The logic should move from Trade preference → temporary export advantage → continued dependence towards AfCFTA → regional scale → industrial capability → global competitiveness

This is important for investors. A project that is commercially viable only because of a particular tariff preference carries greater policy risk than one whose competitiveness is based on productivity, quality, logistics, workforce capability and diversified market access. For policymakers, the lesson is equally important. Trade agreements should be treated as catalysts for industrial upgrading, not substitutes for industrial policy. And for manufacturers, AGOA should be treated as an opportunity to build a business, not the business model itself.

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