As the global economy pivots toward a low-carbon future, copper has emerged as a cornerstone of the green and digital transitions. The UN Global Trade Update – May 2025 offers a deep dive into copper’s strategic role in global trade, highlighting shifting supply chains, geopolitical realignments, and pressing policy challenges for developing economies.

Copper: The Backbone of Clean Energy and Digitalization

Copper’s unique conductive properties make it indispensable across a wide range of industries—from electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy infrastructure to consumer electronics and construction. Global demand for copper is projected to surge by more than 40% by 2040, with clean energy technologies potentially tripling their copper consumption.

However, meeting this demand poses serious challenges:

• 80 new copper mines may be needed by 2030.
• Investment requirements could exceed $250 billion.
• Declining ore grades and long project lead times threaten supply stability.

Structural Shortfalls and Supply Chain Bottlenecks

The copper supply chain spans ore extraction, refining, manufacturing, and recycling. Currently, copper-rich developing countries remain heavily concentrated in the upstream (mining) segment, while value-added activities—like refining and product manufacturing—are dominated by more industrialised economies.

Notably:

• China processes over 45% of global refined copper and is the largest importer of ores, concentrates, and refined copper.
• Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively account for nearly half of global mine production.
• The DRC has tripled its production since 2016, thanks to high-grade deposits (over 3%).

Yet, these countries often export raw ores with limited local processing, thereby missing opportunities for value addition, job creation, and industrial upgrading.

Recycling and Circular Economy: A Strategic Necessity

With primary supply falling short, recycled copper is becoming a vital supplement:

• Nearly one-third of global copper use in 2023 came from recycled sources.
• Recycling requires significantly less energy and has a lower environmental footprint.
• The United States, Germany, and Japan lead global scrap exports, primarily to countries with advanced recycling capabilities.

For developing economies, investing in scrap collection and domestic recycling infrastructure can both reduce environmental harm and boost local industry.

Trade Barriers and Global Asymmetries

Despite globalisation, developing countries still face substantial barriers in accessing higher-value segments of the copper value chain. Tariffs on raw copper remain low, but climb sharply for semi-finished and finished goods—up to 8% in Korea and 7.5% in India.

This tariff escalation discourages downstream investment in producing countries and reinforces structural dependencies in global value chains.

Shifting Trade Geographies and Market Power

The last two decades have seen a significant realignment of copper trade patterns:

• In 2003, Japan led global copper ore imports. By 2023, China controlled 60% of that market.
• Germany transitioned from the top importer to the leading exporter of copper mattes.
• The DRC emerged as a major exporter of refined copper, while Chile’s share declined from 40% to 21% between 2003 and 2023.

These shifts illustrate not just changing market dynamics but also the centrality of policy, industrial capacity, and economic complexity in shaping trade outcomes.

Value Addition: The Path to Inclusive Industrialisation

Adding value domestically—through refining, wire production, or manufacturing components—can deliver broad-based development gains. For instance:

• Copper wire accounts for 63% of first-use applications.
• The top exporters of value-added copper products are mainly advanced economies (e.g., Germany, the U.S., Japan).
• Meanwhile, the DRC, Zambia, and other exporters lag in economic complexity, underscoring the need for targeted capacity building.

Encouragingly, Indonesia stands out as a developing country with high economic complexity (PCI: 2.05), offering a model for others to emulate.

Policy Imperatives for Resource-Rich Developing Countries

To fully benefit from copper-led growth, developing countries must pursue an integrated policy agenda:

a) Industrial Transformation

• Build domestic refining and manufacturing capacity.
• Invest in infrastructure, skills, and technology transfer.

b) Trade and Investment Policy

• Negotiate better market access under schemes like EBA or GSP.
• Promote regional value chains through South-South cooperation.

c) Sustainable Growth

• Prioritise recycling and circular economy models.
• Reduce dependence on raw exports to buffer price volatility.

d) Incentives and Innovation

• Provide tax and regulatory incentives for downstream processing.
• Support SMEs in copper-based value chains.

The Road Ahead: Equity in the Green Economy

The green and digital transitions are redefining global trade, with critical minerals like copper at the centre. But without inclusive strategies, the current trajectory risks entrenching old inequalities. As the UN report emphasises, “mining alone will not meet future copper demand.” To bridge the gap, developing economies must leap from extraction to transformation.

At ITRC, we believe that enabling trade is not just about market access—it’s about building resilient, diversified, and competitive economies. The copper story is a powerful case in point.

Download the full report here